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A 1% selective consumption tax (ISC) on the value of every online bet has been in force since 1 July 2025, after the original policy was scrapped from proposed regulations in July 2021.
Atucha warns that regulations are often perceived as operator-friendly at the start before governments begin looking to squeeze licensed sectors, likening the process to “boiling a frog”. He has observed similar scenarios in other LatAm markets, with tax increases occurring in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico in the last couple of years.
Rossi believes the ISC in Peru is an example of a government implementing new taxes without truly understanding how the industry works, and the potential impacts on channelisation to licensed offerings.
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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
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Rodano spent almost ten years spearheading policy at Playtech as the supplier’s chief policy officer. Then between January last year and August 2026, he led its global player-protection efforts as chief sustainable gambling officer.
During his tenure, Rodano was instrumental in deploying an AI-powered behavioural analytics platform, BetBuddy, which is designed to identify and intervene in potentially harmful gambling behaviours.
Before moving to the private sector, Rodano served as the director of remote gaming at Italy’s regulator, Agenzia Dogane e Monopoli, for almost a decade.
